The Seattle Mariners (64-62) are just 1-6 in their last seven games, but snapping the skid may prove challenging against the Los Angeles Dodgers (74-52).
Regardless, our Mariners vs. Dodgers predictions see plenty of offense on deck tonight.
Red on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, August 20.
Mariners vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Walker Buehler was once an ace for Dave Roberts and the Los Angeles Dodgers. After missing nearly two full years due to Tommy John Surgery, Buehler once again landed on the IL with hip issues.
He just hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and when he has been on the mound, the results aren’t up to par with what we used to see. The Vanderbilt product returned from a two-month absence last week but lasted only 3 ⅓ IP while surrendering three earned runs on four hits and four walks against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The 30-year-old has been crushed to a 5.58 ERA, 5.07 xERA, and 6.29 FIP. He isn’t fooling anyone with a first-percentile whiff rate (16.7%) and sixth-percentile chase rate (23.1%), which has led to a 16th-percentile xBA (.270). He hasn’t looked right, as Roberts asserted after his latest ineffective outing.
The Seattle Mariners aren’t known to have a fearsome lineup, but they do have some decent pop against right-handed pitching with a .157 ISO on the road. They play in a very pitcher-friendly home park, but are 34-25-4 O/U in away games this season. With winds of 8.1 mph blowing out to right-center on an 80-degree night at the time of first pitch, this game could see some fireworks.
Bryce Miller gets the nod for Seattle. While he’s been unhittable at home (2.09 ERA), he’s proved mortal on the road (4.76 ERA). He has some of the most notable home-road splits you’ll see — his K rate drops from 28.9% to 16.8%, while his BA rises from .188 to .237, his FIP from 2.39 to 4.94, and his HR/9 from 0.47 to 1.73.
In case you haven’t heard, the Dodgers possess a capable lineup. They have a 119 wRC+ (fourth) and .335 wOBA (sixth) at home, going 35-25-1 O/U at Dodger Stadium.
Mariners vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
It’s always tempting to play an opposing pitcher’s K prop Over in Mariners games but Tuesday is not an opportune time. Buehler has recorded four or fewer Ks in seven of his nine starts this season and averages 2.5 in his last four. His 7% swinging strike rate is so low it nearly defies belief.
Gavin Lux has been one of the hottest hitters in the MLB, racking up a 198 wRC+ and .454 wOBA since the All-Star break. He’s at his best hitting RHP at home, so this matchup sets up well for him to record two or more total bases for the seventh time in his last eight games.
Mariners vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Seattle +2 (-165) | Los Angeles -2 (+140)
- Moneyline: Seattle +125 | Los Angeles -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Mariners vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle is 5-8 when Miller gets the start on the road.
- L.A. has won seven straight games against the Mariners.
- Seattle has cashed the Over in 21 of its last 31 away games.
Mariners vs Dodgers trend
The Mariners have cashed the Over in seven of Miller’s last 10 road starts.
