Although he only excels in one very specific area, the 27-year-old is nonetheless a fascinating character in baseball and is frequently hailed as a top talent. There is no denying that Arráez receives hits, but his lack of strength and poor defense prevent him from being even respectable by any other standard.
Now that the Padres have made Arráez tradeable, everyone is watching the batting champion’s numbers, which raises a crucial question: how valuable is a guy who is limited to one very specialized skill and nothing else?
Lows and Highs of Luis Arráez
In May 2019, Arráez made his major league debut after signing with the Minnesota Twins as an international free agent in November 2013. He rapidly established himself as a dependable hitter for the Twins’ order in his first season, finishing sixth in the AL first of the Year voting with a.334/.399/.439 slash in 266 plate appearances.
After finishing the 2022 season with the greatest MLB betting average, Arráez was a newly-minted All-Star and Silver Slugger when he was dealt by the Twins to the Miami Marlins in January 2023. In 2023, Arráez replicated his three accomplishments with the Marlins: All-Star selection, Silver Slugger Award, and MLB hitting champion. In May 2024, he was dealt to the Padres, joining his third team in as many years. In 2024, Arráez made a career-high 672 plate appearances, split between Miami and San Diego. He recorded a.314/.346/.392 line with an amazing 4.3% batting average, leading MLB in batting average for the third straight season and earning his third All-Star selection.
In each of his six big league seasons, Arráez has recorded a batting average above.290; if it weren’t for his 2021.294 average, he would have had six seasons with an average above.300. For the last four seasons, his strikeout rate has been in the 100th percentile of all eligible batters, and for the past three seasons, his strikeout rate has been in the 99th percentile (he was in the 99th percentile in 2021).
Without a doubt, Arráez has a remarkable knack for hitting singles when he steps up to the plate. Although it’s simple to claim that “any hit is a hit,” the terrible reality is that Arráez lacks power significantly. In fact, the vast majority of his hits are singles.
His 10 home runs in 2023 are the most he has ever achieved in a season. Even though he won the batting championship in 2024, just 23.7% of his hits had an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater, placing him in the worst 1%—247th out of 252—of all qualifying hitters in terms of hard-hit rate. Not only that, but Arráez has never hit more than three triples in a season, with the exception of his career-high six in 2021, and only 32 of his 200 hits in 2024 were doubles.
Additionally, Arráez doesn’t draw many walks; thus, his sole means of getting on base is to smash singles. Since making his debut, his walk rate has actually decreased annually, going from 9.8% in 2019 to 9.0% in 2021, 8.3% in 2022, and 5.7% in 2023. He was in the lowest 3% in MLB last season with a career-low walk rate of 3.6%.
His defense comes next.
In 2024, Arráez’s dismal -13 Outs Above Average (OAA) put him in the lowest 1% of all eligible fielders. He finished the season with -3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at first base and -3 DRS at second base, and his Fielding Run Value (FRV) of -9 wasn’t much better.
In actuality, Arráez just does one very precise thing, which is to smash songs and hope that everyone is rooting for him. He’s very, very excellent at that one thing, but that’s all there is to it.
Who Requires Singles?
According to Spotrac, Arráez is expected to earn about $13.7 million in his last season of arbitration eligibility. The Padres will probably feel pressure to trade the 27-year-old this winter before he becomes a free agency at the end of 2025, even if they don’t want to reduce money. Being a three-time batting champion has clear worth, but Arráez is difficult to find the ideal home for now that he is available for sale. He won’t be a significant improvement at first or second base due to his poor defense, but his lack of strength also makes him unimpressive as a full-time designated hitter.
Given that Arráez batted in the leadoff slot in 146 of his 150 games in 2024, there is debate over where he might be best used in a batting order to maximize his performance at the plate. Moving him lower in the lineup would probably offer him more opportunities to drive in runs because he only hits singles and earlier batters may get on base before he approaches the plate.
However, it really boils down to whether anyone requires a player that can just get on base (not via walks, since it’s a very specialized skill set) in order to find a suitable partner for Arráez’s particular combination of abilities.
The Seattle Mariners are a potential trade partner because of their pressing need for offensive help. The Mariners were dead last in strikeouts and 29th in batting average in MLB in 2024, so adding a dependable hitter who can merely get hits may make all the difference.
Since they are currently searching for a second base replacement for Gleyber Torres, the New York Yankees are an additional alternative. The Yankees’ hitting lineup requires a man who puts the ball in play, even if that means retaining Arráez in the leadoff slot. Arráez isn’t going to be a game-changing defense for them, but he can’t be much worse than Torres.
The Padres may have to hold onto Arráez until the 2025 deadline, if not the entire season, since they will probably use his batting championships to demand a high return in a deal. The 27-year-old Arráez will become a free agency next winter unless a new contract is reached, even if a team is ready to pay the Padres’ asking price and become his fourth club in four years.
Arráez is an intriguing case study, regardless of where he finishes this season and beyond, as he excels as a top hitter in spite of flaws that would ruin the careers of most other players. Even if he just ever hits singles, he most likely has a lengthy MLB career ahead of him because of his extraordinary ability to put the ball in play.
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