Ozzie Albies has undoubtedly emerged as a fan favorite with the Atlanta Braves. Despite his ups and downs, he has been a reliable presence in the dugout throughout his career.
It’s clear that the Braves use this strategy to prolong the guys they consider to be their core. Despite being a clear member of that core, Ozzie has inexplicably aged and become one of the team’s more senior players.
When examining Albies’ performance, a lot of factors come into play, but is it time to take another look at his contract?
It is reasonable to think that many people would be content if Albies remained in a Braves jersey well after the 2027 season, when he could exercise his last club option.
Let’s first examine some of Albies’ drawbacks. We must be pragmatic when examining contracts to see if it makes sense to spend the funds. Albies has lost a lot of time. He has missed 181 games since 2021 began. In two of the previous four seasons, his offense has also been below average in terms of wRC+. He was 6.0 percent below the norm in 2022 and 5.0 percent below the norm in 2024.
His inability to handle righties is his worst flaw. The limited sample size of 95 at-bats in 2020 was one of the only three seasons in his eight-year career where he posted a wRC+ above league average against them. With a lifetime OBP of.309, he has trouble getting on base against righties.
Defensively, we have also observed a decline in Outs Above Average. Albies finished in the top 20.0 percent of MLB players in four of those seasons, from 2017 to 2022. He has fallen significantly since the beginning of 2023, finishing in the bottom 2.0 and 34.0 percent, respectively. Since the beginning of 2022, he has had an Ultimate Zone Rating of -1.8. Breaking down defensive measures would require a whole article, but the main idea is that he is beginning to deteriorate.
We may examine some hypotheticals here to be fair. We are aware that throughout the previous few years, he became rather defensive. But he had been hurt. To what extent did such bodily and psychological injuries contribute to his defense? Although we are unsure, there are at least some reasons to believe that the injuries were a contributing factor. After a whole offseason to recuperate, we could witness improved defensive performance.
Let’s get past the criticism and see what Ozzie Albies has to offer.
Lefties are crushed by Ozzie. He would be a consistent MVP contender if his overall slash line was the one he used against lefties. His slash line for his career is.336/.362/.564. He has had a wRC+ versus lefties that is at least 36.0 percent higher than the league average in every season save 2020 and 2022.
In addition, Ozzie has been among the league’s top baserunners. Although he doesn’t steal many bases, he has outperformed the league average every season save for the one in which he missed the entire season, according to Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which accounts for all base running aside from thefts.
He has been a reliable performer throughout his career thanks to his extensive body of work. He has finished fourth in fWAR among all active second basemen since the beginning of his career. He has, of course, had plenty of time to accrue fWAR because he joined the league in 2017. Thus, despite missing 181 games over the past four seasons, he still ranks twelfth among current second basemen in fWAR. This is more than he has played in that time frame compared to players like Luis Arraez and Gleybor Torres, who have each played at least 95 more games. In terms of fWAR per game played, a healthy Albies would leap to eighth place, surpassing both Jeff McNeil and Jake Cronenworth.
If you exclude pre-arbitration guys like Paul Skenes, you might argue that Albies has one of, if not THE most team-friendly deal in baseball at the moment given all the benefits he offers.
The Braves have club options for $7MM in 2026 and 2027 in addition to their present $7MM commitment for this season. He doesn’t need to be extended by the Braves right now. But this could be a good moment to begin negotiating. The Braves may sign a contract now to secure those two years and add a few more, as the next two seasons are club options.
What if the Braves made him an offer of $75 million and five years? In this case, the AAV would be $15MM. That would probably be rather easy for Albies to obtain on the open market. In addition to guaranteeing him an additional $54 million if you include the club options, this would assure he remains a Brave for two more years.
Both sides could benefit from it. We are aware that baseball is a business and that it is extremely uncommon to see athletes like Chipper Jones stick with a team for the duration of their careers. But, given how many fans have left the Braves in recent years, it may be a gesture of good faith to the supporters if Ozzie Albies continues to be the team’s obvious captain.
If you would like an extension, please indicate in the comments what kind of contract structure you would like to see.
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