A High-Risk, High-Reward Gamble: The Minnesota Vikings’ Bold Draft Strategy in 2024
The 2024 NFL Draft will be remembered as a pivotal moment for the Minnesota Vikings. Not only did they make aggressive moves to select two highly-coveted prospects—quarterback J.J. McCarthy and edge rusher Dallas Turner—but they also paid a hefty price in draft capital to secure them. However, the early return on investment wasn’t as immediate or impactful as fans had hoped. McCarthy missed his entire rookie season due to a meniscus injury, while Turner spent most of the year as a backup behind established veterans.
Despite that, the Vikings’ front office remains firm in its belief: this was a calculated gamble, and though the payout isn’t immediate, the potential rewards are too valuable to ignore.
Let’s break down the moves, the cost, the implications, and whether the Vikings played their cards right—or simply pushed all their chips in on the wrong hand.
The Draft Day Dance: Trading Up for J.J. McCarthy
The Vikings didn’t originally hold the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. That slot belonged to the New York Jets. But Minnesota’s front office, recognizing the need to find a successor to Kirk Cousins and wary of other quarterback-needy teams potentially jumping ahead of them, engineered a trade to move up one spot—from 11 to 10—to secure their target: J.J. McCarthy.
To complete the trade, the Vikings sent the Jets the 11th overall pick along with their 129th (fourth-round) and 157th (fifth-round) selections. In return, Minnesota received the 10th pick and the 203rd pick (seventh round).
Was it a fair trade?
According to the Rich Hill trade value chart, which assigns numerical value to each draft slot, the picks the Vikings gave up totaled 386 points. In return, they got picks worth 374 points. That 12-point differential is about equal to the value of a late fifth-round pick. For a quarterback they believe could become a franchise cornerstone, the Vikings paid a modest premium to eliminate the risk of getting leapfrogged.
Critics argued Minnesota didn’t need to move up to secure McCarthy—he likely would have been available at pick 11. But in a draft where QB-needy teams like the Broncos and Raiders were looming, the Vikings weren’t willing to leave it to chance.
The Price for a Game-Changer: Acquiring Dallas Turner
While the move for McCarthy was strategic and arguably low-cost, the Vikings’ trade-up for Dallas Turner came at a significantly higher price. Turner, considered one of the top edge-rushing prospects in the draft, had fallen to pick 17—unexpectedly outside the top 10.
Originally, Minnesota didn’t hold a second first-round pick. Weeks before the draft, they traded with the Houston Texans to acquire one, sending Houston the 42nd overall pick (second round), 188th pick (sixth round), and a 2025 second-round pick. In exchange, the Vikings got the 23rd overall pick and pick 232 in the seventh round.
But that was just the first step.
On draft night, Minnesota packaged the 23rd pick, a 2024 fifth-rounder (167), a 2025 third-rounder, and a 2025 fourth-rounder to move up to pick 17—where they finally selected Turner.
All told, Minnesota gave up 568 total points of draft value to get a pick worth 298 points, resulting in a deficit of 270 points. In practical terms, that’s the equivalent of giving up a mid-first-round pick—specifically, the 20th overall slot.
So, what did they give up for Turner? Two second-round picks, a third, a fourth, a fifth, and a sixth, along with the flexibility to maneuver in future drafts. It was a steep cost for a player who ended up being the third defensive player off the board.
2024: A Year of Unfulfilled Promise
Unfortunately for the Vikings, neither McCarthy nor Turner made an immediate impact.
McCarthy, expected to at least compete for the starting job as a rookie, suffered a meniscus injury in the preseason and missed the entire year. Turner, while healthy, saw limited action behind established Pro Bowl edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard. He was primarily used in rotational and special teams roles, never quite carving out a consistent spot on the defense.
This lack of immediate return led to criticism from fans and analysts. How could a team that sacrificed so much draft capital afford to sit its two first-rounders for the majority—or entirety—of their rookie campaigns?
Was It Worth It? A Look at Draft Value in Context
To assess whether these moves were wise, it’s important to understand the broader draft landscape. Minnesota finished the 2023 season with a 7-10 record, giving them the 11th pick. That finish reflected a sharp drop in performance from the prior year, where they went 13-4 and selected 23rd in the 2023 draft.
Had Minnesota won just a few more games in 2023, they would have picked closer to 19th overall—especially since they had several winnable games following Kirk Cousins’ Achilles injury, many of which were lost due to subpar quarterback play.
The difference between picking 11th and 19th is about 80 points on the Rich Hill chart—the equivalent of a late-second-round pick. If the Vikings had picked 19th instead of 11th, moving up to pick 10 to secure McCarthy would have cost 91 points. That’s nearly equal to the value of a mid-second-rounder—meaning they may have needed to sacrifice more than they actually did in 2024.
Similarly, if Turner had gone where he was originally projected—around the 10th pick—Minnesota would have needed even more capital to trade up from a lower starting position in the draft.
For instance, jumping from pick 51 (19th in the second round) to pick 10 would require 257 points—the equivalent of a mid-first-rounder and a late-round pick. That’s a much steeper climb and might have required Minnesota to sacrifice their 2025 first-rounder outright.
The Prospect Grades Tell a Different Story
NFL.com assigned Turner a 6.72 prospect grade in 2024. In this year’s draft class, which is generally seen as weaker and less top-heavy, that grade would be the fifth-highest overall. Turner’s position—edge rusher—is also more valued than many others, increasing his draft stock in retrospect.
Similarly, McCarthy’s 6.40 prospect grade edged out Cam Ward (6.39), who is projected as a potential No. 1 overall pick this year. The 2025 class is expected to have a steep drop-off in quarterback talent after the top pick, making McCarthy an even more valuable asset had he declared a year later.
In short: if these two players had entered the 2025 draft, they might have been unattainable to the Vikings without mortgaging their future entirely.
The Long View: An Investment in the Future
The Vikings still hold their 2025 first-round pick (24th overall), despite all the maneuvering they did in 2024. That’s a testament to how calculated the front office was in executing these trades. They gave up volume, yes—but not the premium top-25 pick for next year.
And there’s also context regarding the players ahead of Turner on the depth chart. Andrew Van Ginkel is entering his age-30 season and is only under contract through 2025. Jonathan Greenard, while highly productive, could see his role shift depending on how Turner develops. Turner, only 22 years old, could be groomed to take over a starting role in the near future. His youth, athleticism, and pedigree make him a long-term investment.
As for McCarthy, his rookie year may have been a wash, but the Vikings clearly see him as the future of the franchise. A year of rehab and learning the offense from the sidelines isn’t a death knell for a young quarterback—it could even prove beneficial.
Conclusion: Calculated Aggression or Reckless Gamble?
The Minnesota Vikings’ approach to the 2024 NFL Draft can be summed up in two words: bold and intentional. They understood the premium value of quarterback and edge rusher in today’s NFL and weren’t afraid to pay to secure the prospects they believed could shape their future.
Yes, the price was steep—particularly for Dallas Turner—but when placed in context, both selections may prove to be well worth the cost. The draft is inherently a gamble. Not every pick pays off immediately. But when you believe you’ve found a potential franchise quarterback and a future star pass rusher, standing pat and hoping they fall to you isn’t a strategy—it’s a risk of its own.
The Vikings opted to bet on themselves—and their evaluation of two top-tier talents. Only time will tell whether it was a masterstroke or a misfire. But one thing is certain: they made their move with conviction.
And in a league where standing still often means falling behind, that courage just might be what sets them apart.
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