Max Kepler signed a $10 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies last Thursday. He will participate in his first game outside of the organization he has been with for half of his life. Over the past twelve years, the club has had chances to move him but has never done so.
I’m going to stick with this article’s title after giving it some thought. Max Kepler is the best baseball player to have ever left the Twins with no return under Derek Falvey.
Fans have quite different opinions about Kepler. He had a competent glove at a non-premium position for the majority of his career, with a low batting average, respectable on-base abilities, and a streaky bat that could pop 15 to 20 home runs. Fans’ most extreme opinions of him, both good and negative, likely fall just in the middle of his true worth and performance.
He isn’t a very good player, but he wasn’t awful either. He was marginally, but frustratingly, below average at worst. Even though I keep questioning myself if I’m certain, I firmly believe that I am. I composed that title myself. I’m not exaggerating. Furthermore, I’ve never even been a fan of Max Kepler. I just believe it’s noteworthy outside from that.
You may have other names in mind that contradict that assertion. The Twins acquired Taylor Rogers and Chris Paddack in exchange for Brent Rooker, a multiple All-Star. The Yankees had to trade away Jake Cave in order to get Luis Gil, who recently won Rookie of the Year! Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cade Povich, Spencer Steer, Steven Hajjar, and Yennier Cano were traded. Unwise transactions in retrospect? Indeed. However, they did receive some compensation in the shape of Jorge Lopez and Tyler Mahle.
The Twins received a compensation selection, which they used to acquire Kyle DeBarge, but Sonny Gray walked for free. They were netted by Lance Lynn. Both Luis Rijo and Tyler Austin. LaMonte Wade Jr. Anderson Shaun. Pressly, Ryan? Alcala Jorge and Celestino Gilberto. Eduardo Escobar? Jhoan Durán together with others. Garver, Mitch, Ronny Henriquez, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Urshela Gio? Hidalgo Alejandro. Coulombe, Danny? Money.
You may argue that some of these exchanges were “for nothing” if you want to be both dramatic and realistic. I will be pedantic and say that it’s not nothing, even though the Twins may receive two bullpen innings from Justin Topa in 2024 as a result of the Jorge Polanco trade.
It relates to an organizational philosophy: don’t let value to ripen or die on the vine. Teams who are at the bottom of the expenditure scale must be adept at it, but most teams have a comparable concept that is practiced to some extent. When players depart in free agency, they become less valuable. By trading players, the organization is able to keep some of them. The most successful businesses strike the right mix between selling assets to keep the business young and healthy and holding onto present value to be competitive.
When they departed, many of the assets that weren’t exchanged had nearly no value left in them. I won’t list every name here, but here are a few: Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, J.A. Happ, Logan Morrison, Miguel Sanó, and Marwin González. A few of these players signed contracts, but because of their age, injuries, or other circumstances, the writing was on the wall.
Who is Kepler’s rival for this distinction, then? I have a couple names after doing some study. First up is Eddie Rosario, who had one year left on his contract in 2020 when he was non-tendered. No team claimed him on waivers, and the Twins hung onto him for too long to get anything in exchange. Although his performance after leaving Minnesota has been inconsistent, I’m included him because of his impact on the Braves’ 2021 World Series.
After their one-off year in Minnesota, fellow Bomba Squad colleagues Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron were reliable regulars for a few years, with Cron even making an All-Star selection. Both reached their maximum pay of $7.5 million per year and were able to play themselves out of the league in their early thirties.
Kyle Gibson was one name that surprised Twins fans. He has earned $50 million since leaving Minnesota, but he has only had one season with an ERA below 4.70 (although an All-Star year). Martín Pérez was allowed to walk by the Twins the same year. He had a fantastic 2022 season with an ERA of less than 3.00, which strangely did not get him any Cy Young votes. However, he hasn’t had an ERA below 4.50 since then.
A dark horse in this discussion is Zack Littell. He has fluctuated since being cut by Minnesota, but he has been a very reliable and affordable starting pitcher for the Rays for the past year and a half. Even though he was only 25 when he was released, few in Minnesota anticipated this result after three years as a long or middle reliever in the state.
Over the past two years, the Twins have also had scares in the Rule 5 Draft with Tyler Wells and Akil Baddoo, but Wells is already thirty and has had health issues, while Baddoo has played his way out of Detroit.
Derek Falvey seems to have attempted to follow the patterns of successful small-market teams, selling whenever he can, whether it’s on Nelson Cruz and Brian Dozier or Taylor Rogers and José Berríos. This is also influenced by extensions, like Byron Buxton or Sanó. The former remained with the company until he had no trade value. Although there were rumors that Buxton was being actively marketed during the contract negotiations, the latter may follow suit.
In actuality, we have a small sample size because Falvey has only managed the franchise for eight seasons, and the Twins were only in sell mode in 2018 and 2021. Nevertheless, they have worked to keep the talent cycle going. Kepler is perhaps the greatest player the Twins have let go since 2017 if he has three or four more seasons as a mediocre regular.
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