Alex Bregman is still unsigned, but February begins tomorrow. He allegedly sat on a six-year, $156 million offer from the Astros during the offseason. According to The New York Post’s Jon Heyman, he also has a “lucrative” six-year offer from another team “that may not be high on his list,” with an opt-out after the first year. Heyman lists the Red Sox, Tigers, and Cubs as teams that have been considered. In a recent appearance on Area 45 with Bijani and Creighton, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale hinted that Bregman may receive a six-year deal from the Blue Jays.
Up until now, the Bregman saga’s complexities have been thoroughly recorded. At the beginning of the winter, returning to the Astros appeared to be a real possibility. There has been obvious interest in a reunion, but there has been a lull in negotiations on the financials, with Bregman apparently seeking to get close to $200MM.
Although the $156MM offer is quite close to that, Heyman and Nightengale both say Bregman saw it as a salary drop. The average yearly value of such offer would be $26 million. Bregman inked a five-year, $100 million contract deal with the Astros in March 2019. It was backloaded even though the AAV was just $20MM. After receiving a $10 million signing bonus, Bregman’s salary increased to $11 million for the first three years of the contract and $28.5 million for the last two. It seems that the immediate pay cut wasn’t acceptable, even if the subsequent offer from Houston would have included an AAV increase in comparison to that full deal.
As a result, other teams expressed interest in Bregman, and the Astros decided to look for other players. They signed Christian Walker after acquiring Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade. These two, along with Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña, appeared to clog the Houston infield and prevent Bregman from returning to the team. According to more recent accounts, the door may possibly be open a crack. It appears that the team is open to moving Altuve to left field, Paredes to second, and Bregman back.
Although it’s a little uncomfortable, same could also be said of Bregman’s other potential landing locations. Prospects like Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell are rushing towards the second base vacancy, while Rafael Devers is at third for the Red Sox. Given his subpar fielding, it makes some sense to shift Devers to first base, but he is hesitant to do so, and Boston possesses Masataka Yoshida as a possible designated hitter and Triston Casas at first. The Tigers would be denying regular playing time to Jace Jung, a highly regarded prospect who has already made it to the major leagues. Matt Shaw would also be blocked by the Cubs. Orelvis Martínez, Addison Barger, and Ernie Clement are among the list of prospective third basemen whom the Jays would be barring.
According to data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts and RosterResource, the teams are in varying financial situations. The Tigers anticipate making $118 million on Opening Day. Although they were in the $120-140MM area the two years before, it is much more than the $98MM amount from the previous year. They would surpass that if they signed Bregman, but it would be warranted given their unexpected playoff run the previous year. Their negotiations with Bregman were apparently at a stalemate as of last week.
The Red Sox and Cubs both had competitive balance tax numbers of $210MM and $207MM, respectively. Both teams are almost $30 million above the $241 million base tax threshold for this year. Although both clubs allegedly like the concept of signing Bregman to a short-term agreement, it is impossible to expressly rule out them reaching or even surpassing the line because they have both paid the tax in recent years.
In contrast, the Jays are far superior than the other teams in this group. They anticipate a $273 million CBT figure and a $250 million payroll, both of which would be franchise records by a wide margin. The $225 million Opening Day payroll from the previous year set a new high at the time. Before their dismal season resulted in a trade deadline selloff that allowed them to limbo beneath, they were predicted to cross the CBT line again last year after coming just over it in 2023. They allegedly still have options after reaching an agreement with Max Scherzer, despite the fact that they are in unfamiliar territory.
The Cubs would face the worst penalty for signing Bregman because they were the only non-Houston team listed here to pay the tax in 2024. Any team other than Houston that contracts him would forfeit their draft selection since he turned down a qualifying offer. The Cubs would forfeit their second and fifth-highest choices as well as $1 million from the international bonus pool space for the next year as a tax payer. The only things the Jays and Red Sox would lose are their second-highest selection and $500K in pool space since they failed to pay the tax and are not eligible for revenue-sharing. The Jays would really give up their third-highest selection if they signed Bregman, as they previously gave up a pick to acquire Anthony Santander. The Tigers would forfeit their third-best choice as a revenue-sharing recipient. If Bregman joins elsewhere, Houston will be compensated, but they won’t get a pick until after the fourth round of the next draft because they paid the tax last year. That possible payment would be forfeited if Bregman were to re-sign.
Teams are eager to find a way to make it work despite the awkward roster fits. Normally, an unsigned player would have to start thinking about short-term contracts thus close to the start of spring training. The so-called “Boras Four”—Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, and Cody Bellinger—signed two- or three-year contracts with opt-outs in February or March of last year. Bregman and Pete Alonso, who are currently unsigned, are also represented by Boras.
After previously discussing potential three-year agreements with the Mets, it appears like Alonso is pursuing the short-term way. However, Bregman reports indicate that’s less likely. According to reports last week, Bregman has had many offers for at least five years. One of them appears to be the Astros, who have apparently continued to extend their offer to Bregman despite making other moves.
It appears that Bregman has been in a state of uncertainty. This holding pattern has resulted from indications that indicate he has a respectable level of interest, but not nearly enough to reach his asking price. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR projected that he would get a seven-year contract for $182MM. As previously stated, he was hoping to go a little higher—into the $200MM range—but his bids have apparently come in at a somewhat lesser amount.
According to reports, Jorge Polanco was the Astros’ backup for Bregman, but he has decided to sign a new contract with the Mariners. It’s unclear if the Astros will raise their offer to Bregman as a result. It is well known that they are seeking an outfielder who is left-handed. An indirect method of doing it would have been to sign switch-hitter Polanco. Even though Altuve would have probably ended up in left field, the lineup would have benefited from having a lefty bat. Now, they may think about going with a more straightforward strategy, like signing Jason Heyward or Alex Verdugo. Although the team has been linked to Verdugo this offseason and acquired Heyward late last year after he was cut by the Dodgers, Bregman is a right-handed talent who is more intriguing overall than those two.
Other teams appear to be interested, maybe at a comparable price range, regardless of whether the Astros change course and cut Polanco. Other participants may be impacted by how this develops. The Jays have been scouting Alonso as well, but they won’t sign both. Some of these clubs have been linked to unsigned pitchers including Nick Pivetta and Jack Flaherty. In less than two weeks, catchers and pitchers will report for spring camp.
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