Alex Anthopoulos woke up earlier this week and made his first move of the winter by signing Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42 million contract. The Braves had been silent this offseason.
Although many Braves supporters are pleased with the contract, ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle rates the acquisition a C because he believes it is a mediocre signing.
In addition to witnessing the departure of Max Fried and Charlie Morton as free agents, the Atlanta Braves had also witnessed significant offseason moves from their top National League rivals, including the Los Angeles Dodgers with Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, the New York Mets with Juan Soto, and the Philadelphia Phillies with Jesus Luzardo and Max Kepler. Morton signed with the Baltimore Orioles, while Fried joined the New York Yankees. Even the Arizona Diamondbacks, who finished the previous season with 89 wins, signed Corbin Burnes, a Cy Young candidate.
Instead of depending just on the offense to recover from a poor 2024 season and Spencer Strider to fully recover from Tommy John surgery, it was becoming increasingly important that the Braves take some action to strengthen their squad. They have so reached an agreement with Jurickson Profar, who is undoubtedly one of the most intriguing free agents this offseason.
While I can see the passion behind comparing the Braves’ offseason to those of the Dodgers and Mets, it is not a fair approach to evaluate them. Context is crucial. For example, the Braves now have a better roster than the Mets, but they are receiving all of this accolades because of New York’s impressive offseason performance.
Between 111 games with the Colorado Rockies and 14 with the San Diego Padres in 2023, Profar produced minus-1.3 bWAR, making him one of the poorest regulars in the big leagues. In fact, FanGraphs placed him worst out of 656 position players in WAR, at minus-1.6. Profar was an unsigned free agent at the end of that season, but he finally signed a $1 million basic salary agreement with the Padres after spring training began.
After that, he enjoyed the finest season of his career with San Diego, hitting.280/.380/.459, placing eighth in the majors in on-base percentage, and starting the All-Star Game. Profar has above-average contact rates and superb plate discipline, but his batted-ball analytics skyrocketed to heights he had never reached before. His average exit velocity rose from 86.5 mph to 91.1 mph (from the ninth percentile to the 80th); his hard-hit rate (balls above 95 mph) had never been greater than 34% and surged to 44.4% (placing him in the 71st percentile of all hitters).
Even while the numbers indicate that Profar’s 2024 season was legitimate, Doolittle is dubious of the Braves’ obvious bet that he can repeat his breakthrough performance. Jurickson Profar’s changes at the plate are genuine, according to Alex Anthopoulos. In a few months, we’ll know.